The global economy is entering a new phase of the economic cycle. The technical term is „growth below potential“. In this environment, unemployment rates are starting to rise slowly but continuously. At the same time, the risks to economic growth remain on the downside.

Whether this is a period of weakness or a transition into recession depends primarily onwhether the trade conflict between the US and China intensifies or an agreement is reached. Since market prices already contain some fear of recession, an economically weaker phase would not (necessarily) be negative for risky asset categories.