Real global economic growth rose in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the fourth quarterof 2018. Stabilization took place earlier than expected. The USA and China in particular surprised positively.

Especially the good performance of the labour market, higher income and stronger growth inconsumption, had a positive impact on GDP growth in the developed economies. Central bankpolicy remains expansionary. The risk of possible interest rate hikes has fallen. However, therisk that economic growth is deteriorating remains elevated.

In addition the latent risk of a failure of negotiations between the USA and China is aparticularly dominant market issue. A further escalation in the trade dispute between the USAand China would have negative effects on risky assets, both in the short and long run.